Quarterly Insight - Spring 2022
The Spring 2022 Quarterly Insight is out.
In this tumultuous and emotional period, which will go down in the history books, we are honored to share with you our macroeconomic and financial vision for the next quarter in our “Quarterly Insight” publication.
The conflict in Ukraine is an extreme external shock that will have many geopolitical and economic ramifications in future years. A positive global macroeconomic outlook has been clouded by recent geopolitical events. In such times, one has to accept the volatility of risky assets and strategically favor real assets (such as equities, commodity related stocks, real estate assets), as these are the only assets with a purchasing power that is usually also conflict-resistant.
For fixed income, a continued pressure can be expected on the asset class linked to strong inflationary forces, central banks’ policy normalization and a still very low yield cushion.
For commodities, rising inflation and geopolitical worries have sustained the asset class and this environment should remain conducive for further price gains in the future.
However, risks are binary: disruption to flows would be significantly bullish, but there is also the potential for a correction in the event of de-escalation.